HOPE FOR SARAWAK?

Malaysiakini

“It looks like there is now hope for Sarawak.”

MCPX

This was the text of a SMS from a KL-based senior bank manager, a Lun Bawang, after reports on Saturday night that PAS had crushed the Barisan Nasional and won the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat with a 2,631-vote majority in a by-election.

This would be the second win for the Pakatan Rakyat after the March 2008 general elections, confirming waning support for the country’s ruling coalition.

The Orang Ulu senior bank manager, a PKR supporter, was referring to PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim-led Pakatan Rakyat’s (PKR/DAP/PAS) campaign already underway to wrest control of Sarawak from the BN in the next state elections due at the latest by 2011.

He said: “The KT result confirmed for the second time, after Permatang Pauh, that the wind of change that swept the country on March 13, 2008 is real and here to stay.”

“In fact it is gathering strength instead of dying out as the BN would hope!”

He added: “To the Sarawakians it says the moment of truth is now. It’s time the voters show (Chief Minister) Taib Mahmud the final curtain.”

There has been talk that long-serving Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud may call the state elections earlier. Although he has publicly ruled out elections this year, many believe it will be to pave the way for his son Sulaiman, 39, the Samarahan MP and deputy tourism minister, to eventually take over from him.

‘Change in the making’

Almost without any exception local PKR party leaders and supporters said the Kuala Terengganu by-election result which many people had believed would be won by the BN would be a big boost to the morale of Pakatan Rakyat, believing it to reflect the national mood for change.

In its major roadshows so far in places like Kuching, Sibu and Miri, PKR has proclaimed that “Change We Can” and “Change in the Making” as their campaign theme in both urban and rural areas of Sarawak.

Sarawak has 71 state assembly seats , of which eight are in the hands of the Opposition (DAP 6, PKR 2) and one Independent (pro-BN).

Senior leaders of state BN component parties Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Sarawak United People’s Party(Supp) have already warned their BN colleagues to take the threat from Pakatan, especially PKR, seriously.

Even within Taib’s own party Parti Pesaka Bumiputera (PBB) some senior leaders – all Malays – have told the chief minister not to take the threat from PKR lightly.

But Taib doesn’t seem worried or seem to care, said several political observers.

PKR has already penetrated far and deep into Dayak areas which represent a total of 28 state seats while DAP’s support among the Chinese, especially in the urban centres, is growing too.

This will be at the expense of largely SUPP. DAP’s six state assemblypersons won in urban areas, and political observers say DAP is likely to make greater impact the next round in more areas in central (Sibu) and northern (Miri) Sarawak regions.

DAP eyes Chinese majority areas

There are 17 Chinese majority and mixed state constituencies ,most of which are likely to be contested by DAP with a few going to PKR’s Chinese candidates.

The Malay/Melanau areas with a total of 25 state seats are going to prove to be a tough nut to crack. Taib’s PBB has a strong hold on the Malay/Melanau seats.

But the vulnerable ones are said to be in and around Kuching ,in Simunjan, Gedong and Sibu, largely because of local issues and problems. In the last state elections, PAS lost narrowly in one of the Malay seats in the Simunjan area.

A combined Pakatan Rakyat campaign could have a significant impact, just as what has been seen in Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu.

If the Pakatan Rakyat were to win also in Pensiangan (a by-election will be held if PBRS leader Joseph Kurup lost his appeal), that would further confirm a swing among the rural constituents towards the Opposition and spell big trouble for Sabah BN in the next general elections as well.

In Sarawak, the Opposition has played up to great effect, various issues regarding the growing disquiet over the land issue, Taib’s leadership, amassed wealth of top politicians in the state, cronyism, nepotism, corruption and marginalisation of various groups in business, civil service and other economic opportunities.

PKR will continue with its roadshows ahead of the state elections and will bring in their bigwigs, including Pakatan Rakyat’s chief minister and mentris besar, to meet the locals and give a boost to their local party leaders’ efforts to shore up support for their respective parties.

The three major dinner gatherings in Kuching, Sibu and Miri have attracted thousands to come and listen to such leaders as Anwar Ibrahim and Selangor Mentri Besar Khalid Ibrahim.

Other road shows will be held in other major towns in Sarawak with seminars in between to prepare party members for election work.

A senior party leader told Malaysiakini that they will expose their potential candidates at such gatherings and seminars to the grassroots. “We believe the state elections could be held this year and so we must be prepared,” he added.